Geoff Gannon Digest #5 – A Compilation Of Ideas On Investing (@geoffgannon)

Why I Concentrate On Clear Favorites And Soggy Cigar Butts

  • Graham and Schloss had >50 stocks in their portfolio for much of their career
  • They turned over their portfolios infrequently; probably added one position a month
  • To avoid running a portfolio that requires constant good ideas:
    • increase concentration
    • increase hold time
    • buy entire groups of stocks at once
  • With his JNets, Gannon purchased a “basket” because he could not easily discriminate between Japanese firms which were both:
    • profitable
    • selling for less than their net cash
  • Portfolio concentration when investing abroad is based upon:
    • which countries do I invest in?
    • how many cheap companies can I find in industries I understand?
    • how many family controlled companies can I find?
  • Interesting businesses are often unique

How Today’s Profits Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth

  • To elements to consider with any business’s returns:
    • How much can you make per dollar of sales?
    • How much can you sell per dollar of capital you tie up?
  • Quantitative check: Gross Profit/ ((Receivables + Inventory + PP&E) – (Payables + Accrued Expenses))
  • Once an industry matures, self-funding through retained earnings becomes a critical part of future growth; it’s the fuel that drives growth
  • A company with high ROIC isn’t just more profitable, it can more reliably grow its own business
  • Maintaining market share usually means increasing capital at the same rate at which the overall market is growing
  • Higher ROIC allows for the charting of a more reliable growth path
  • Industries where ROIC increases with market share present dangers to companies with low market share or low ROIC
  • The easiest place to get capital is from your own successful operations; tomorrow’s capital comes from today’s profits

Why Capital Turns Matter — And What Warren Buffett Means When He Talks About Them

  • Capital turns = Sales/Net Tangible Assets
  • Buffett nets tangible assets against A/P and accrued expenses; gives companies credit for these zero-interest liabilities, rather than assuming shareholders pay for all of a company’s assets
  • Buffett’s businesses tend to have higher sales per dollar of assets
  • Companies with higher sales per dollar of assets have higher ROIC than competitors even if they have the same margins
  • There’s more safety in a business in an industry with:
    • adequate gross margins
    • adequate capital turns
  • Industries dependent upon margins or turns open themselves to devastating attacks from the player who can maximize key variables you control:
    • price
    • cost
    • working capital management
    • etc.
  • Companies often compete on a specific trait; it has to be a trait that is variable and can be targeted for change

How to Lose Money in Stocks: Look Where Everyone Else Looks — Ignore Stocks Like These 15

  • It’s risky to act like everyone else, looking at the same stocks everyone else looks at, or by entering and exiting with the crowd
  • Don’t worry about which diet is best, worry about which diet you can stick to; find an adequate approach you can see through forever
  • Having Buffett-like success requires every day commitment
  • You should aim to earn 7% to 15% a year for the rest of your investing life if you aren’t going to fully commit like Buffett did
  • A good investment:
    • reliable history of past profitability
    • cheap in terms of EV/EBITDA
    • less analyst coverage
  • A list of such stocks:
    • The Eastern Company (EML)
    • Arden (ARDNA)
    • Weis Markets (WMK)
    • Oil-Dri (ODC)
    • Sauer-Danfoss (SHS)
    • Village Supermarket (VLGEA)
    • U.S. Lime (USLM)    
    • Daily Journal (DJCO)
    • Seaboard (SEB)
    • American Greetings (AM)
    • Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP)
    • International Wire (ITWG)
    • Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
    • Performed Line Products (PLPC)
    • GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)