Notes – A Compilation Of Ideas On Investing (@geoffgannon, #ncav, #netnet, #valueinvesting)

How to Screen for Hidden Champions

  • If I could recommend only one book for value investors to read it would be Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century
  • Reading about Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Apple (AAPL) and Starbucks (SBUX) and thinking you are becoming a business expert is like reading about blue whales and elephants and thinking you are becoming an animal expert. Tiny insects are a lot more common than giant mammals
  • Screening for Hidden Champions:
    • 10 years consistent >= 15% op margin and market cap < $1B
    • 10 years consistent >= 15% ROE and market cap < $1B
    • 10 years consistent >= 8% ROA and market cap <$1B
    • 10 years consistent EPS increase and market cap < $1B
  • If an ultra-conservatively managed family company earns 10% on equity it would probably earn closer to 20% on equity if it was sold to a professionally managed multinational
  • Some companies have negative equity, to correct for this, screen for >= 8% ROA regardless of ROE
  • The best place to screen for hidden champions in the UK is SharelockHolmes

Backtesting Net-Nets: Does It Matter?

  • Net-nets are a symptom of the overall stock market’s health
  • You should ignore a net-net for two years after you buy it, at minimum
  • The key to a successful NCAV portfolio is to not sell your winners too fast
  • If a stock has low institutional ownership, low short interest, no analyst coverage, and a small number of shares outstanding – nobody is looking at the company; buy net-nets where institutions own the fewest shares
  • Inactivity is necessary to really judge your net-net selection skills
  • If you are just taking a profit (or loss) in a net-net within 1 to 2 years of buying it – I think you’ve basically just traded a stock on a different basis than you analyzed it
  • A good net-net is really just a decent business. Why would insiders still control 10% to 50% of a company that has been public for 10 to 30 years?
  • Try to buy the “best” net-net available each month with an emphasis on “safe” rather than “cheap”
  • Attractive net-net criteria:
    • Long history of consistent profitability
    • Long tenured CEO
    • High insider ownership
    • Low leverage
    • High cash relative to share price
    • Good capital allocation decisions
    • Simple business
    • Good business
    • Lasting business
  • Ideally, you don’t want to pay more than the company’s own cash for the stock
  • High insider ownership in a newly public company doesn’t have the same meaning as it does at an old company
  • Dividends are nice, not because they’re important but because of what dividends are a symptom of
  • Retailers are tough net-nets; a retailer that loses some of its competitiveness is a retailer that could be out of business in a matter of years
  • How to sabotage a NCAV portfolio: sell too soon; if you sell your winners when they go up, you destroy the performance of a net-net; the big winners are needed to outweigh the big losers and the mediocre performers
  • The holding of net-nets is critical
  • Slowly assemble a net-net portfolio over a period of a couple years, and don’t sell anything for those first two years

Should You Wait for a Crash – Or Buy Today’s Best Bargain?

  • To get consistently good investment results, follow one of two programs:
    • Buy companies that are clearly selling for less than their conservatively calculated value to aprivate owner
    • Buy companies that will earn high returns on capital while growing quickly for many, many, many years to come
  • During periods of panic, look for obvious mispricings; for example, high quality companies trading at less than 10x FCF; 10x free cash flow is less than stocks are generally worth
  • To fill a portfolio in the midst of a market crash, have a shopping list of companies you like but are overpriced ahead of time
  • You are very unlikely to cause any sort of catastrophic problem for yourself just by overpaying for the right kind of company. Buying the wrong company is your biggest risk
  • Just wait for an obviously wonderful business selling for the kind of price a normal stock sells for in normal times

Warren Buffett Checklist to Invest in a Great Business: KO

  • Buffett had 9 criteria he examined when determining whether he was investing in a great business:
    • Does the business have an identifiable consumer monopoly?
    • Are the earnings of the company strong and showing an upward trend?
    • Is the company conservatively financed?
    • Does the business consistently earn a high rate of return on shareholders’ equity?
    • Does the business get to retain its earnings?
    • How much does the business have to spend on maintaining current operations?
    • Is the company free to reinvest retained earnings in new business opportunities, expansion of operations, or share repurchases? How good a job does the management do at this?
    • Is the company free to adjust prices to inflation?
    • Will the value added by retained earnings increase the market value of the company?

Free Cash Flow: Adjusting for Acquisitions, Capital Allocation and Corporate Character

  • Make your Ben Graham investments on an EV/EBIT basis
  • Make your Warren Buffett investments on a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF or P/OE) basis

How to Read a 10-K: What is the Most Important Part?

  • The only 10-K I read from cover to cover is the most recent 10-K
  • Print out and mark up a hard copy of the latest 10-K, 10-Q, and 14A
  • Check all of the 8-Ks and 13Gs from the last year or so
  • If there was a scandal, a proxy battle, legal case, unconsummated merger, etc. – read the 8-Ks and other documents surrounding that time period even if it was many years ago
  • Read the oldest 10-K as well as the newest
  • Read any shareholder letters ever written that are still available
  • Enter Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Income Statement data into an Excel spreadsheet for every year the company reported to EDGAR
  • Always have at least 10 years of data
  • Look at the notes to the financial statements most critically
  • Ask yourself the following questions:
    • What is customer behavior in the industry?
    • Why do customers choose what they choose?
    • What does management really think? What are they really like?
  • Gannon prefers investing in companies where he understands customer behavior the best

How Long Should You Hold a Net-Net?

  • All we need to do is make sure that the stocks we buy are clearly worth more than we pay for them
  • Forget about trading a net-net a full year after buying it and instead focus on the two things that matter most:
    • Picking the right stock (company)
    • Holding that stock regardless of what the market does
  • Never sell a net-net in less than one year unless:
    • You made a mistake
    • You need to buy something else (that’s better)
  • A one to five year holding period is the right length for net-nets
  • Never sell a net-net just because it reached NCAV; NCAV is still really, really cheap

How to Get a Job in Value Investing

  • Look for someone trying to build a research team from scratch
  • The best combination is often when the position is brand new and the right person was impressed ahead of time
  • Do lots of research for free and then let it get into the hands of someone who can hire an analyst
  • Talk to everybody whose work you respect by sending them an email; share your best ideas with them
  • Set aside time to writing and reading about value investing every single day
  • Don’t send your casual thoughts to those you’re trying to impress; you want them to think of you as a thorough, insightful researcher

What is the Buffett/Munger Bargains Newsletter?

  • Investing in net-nets is the best way for a dedicated, “do-it-yourself” individual investor to beat the market
  • The newsletter’s strategy is to find companies with the following attributes:
    • Simple business
    • Favorable long-term prospects
    • Able and honest management
    • Consistent earnings
    • Good ROE
    • Little debt
    • Very attractive price
  • It is modeled on the Buffett/Munger of the 1970s
  • “Really good businesses usually don’t need to borrow… they make the most of an already strong business franchise or concentrate on a single winning business theme” -Buffett
  • Use the higher of today’s interest rates and long-term average interest rates when considering valuations

How I Pick Stocks for the Ben Graham Net-Net Newsletter

  • Traditionally, big net-nets have been poor performers
  • The ratio of insider ownership to institutional ownership is actually one of the best predictors of the future stock market performance of a net-net
  • What makes for a good net-net?
    • High insider ownership / Low institutional ownership
    • High F-Score
    • Consistent earnings
    • Simple business
    • Decent ROE
    • Decent long-term prospects
  • The idea is to get the best business for the lowest price

How Should You Divide Your Research Time?

  • I put my energy towards whatever is most clearly undervalued
  • I keep cash close to 0% when I have good ideas
  • The important thing is picking the exact right company and then picking the approximately right price
  • I spent probably half a year thinking about buying DWA before I put in my buy order
  • A typical net-net for me is a 10% position held for just over a year
  • I spend almost half my time looking at net-nets and almost half my time looking at high quality companies
  • I look longer at each high quality company I research
  1. Open Google Translate
  2. Find the stock on its home stock exchange
  3. Read the company’s annual reports
  4. Study comparable companies in your home country
  5. Enter the stock’s past financials in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet
  6. Use the past financials and comparison companies to appraise the stock’s value to a private buyer
  7. Compare the stock’s appraised value to its market price
  8. If the market price is more than 75% of the appraised value, forget about the stock
  9. If the market price is less than 50% of the appraised value, focus on the stock
  10. Otherwise: use your best judgment

Books mentioned: